CDC: Coronavirus Death Rate Far Lower Than Previously Predicted
While this headline is certainly going to make some people feel better about the current state of affairs, we must remind ourselves about the CDC’s ever changing position during this pandemic. For starters, they are the ones who are responsible for the faulty testing that is currently taking place. Rapid testing would have gone a long way towards containing the initial wave if the CDC had done what they were supposed to.
The errors that they made were not even understandable. We expect better from the CDC. It was truly amateur hour over there when they were in the process of creating the faulty tests. They couldn’t even stop their own lab from becoming contaminated. The methods that they were using to establish the daily metrics were also quite flawed.
The CDC combined their antibody testing with their nose/throat testing, which does not paint an accurate picture. Antibody testing is used as a means of testing for previous infections, while nose/throat testing is utilized by medical facilities that are looking to detect current infections. These are the sorts of inexplicable errors that are totally inexcusable.
How can Americans believe anything that they are being told by the CDC going forward? They are supposed to be the world’s top government agency when it comes to handling issues like these. If they cannot detect and control diseases like these, what are they going to be able to do? It’s a fair question and it is far from rhetorical at this point.
Their performance has left a lot to be desired at the moment and that is about the nicest way that we could put it. We are sure that a wide range of people are going to look at the numbers and put their faith in the CDC this time. If they are willing to do so, that is their choice. We are not going to be easily swayed this time around.
They have issued their best case scenario projection for the American fatality rate but it feels a bit too pat. When information this serious seems too good to be true, it usually is. The CDC is calculating their numbers by using the total number of cases, not the total rate of infection. This could definitely produce some faulty findings if they are not careful.
It is one of the main reasons that we are so skeptical. The COVID Tracking Project is already providing numbers that will cast serious doubts on these fluky sounding numbers that the CDC is offering up. The case fatality ratio that they have come up with is 5.6 percent. This is nowhere near close to the 0.4 number that has been quoted by the CDC. It’s enough to make you wonder why they even bothered in the first place.
For one thing, the virus has already killed 0.2 percent of all New Yorkers, and obviously a much higher percentage of those who’ve actually been infected in the city. For another, if we’ve had 100,000 deaths nationwide and a CFR of 0.4 percent, that means we’ve had 25 million symptomatic cases; including cases without symptoms, more than 10 percent of the entire country has been infected, which seems out of sync with what we’re hearing from serology tests.
We need the CDC to show their work here and let us know how they came up with the 0.4 percent numbers. It’s faulty calculation at best and willful misinformation at worst. We are also not sure how Americans can possibly believe anything that they have to say about these matters. They have been wrong every step of the way and there’s nothing more than can be said about it.
If the CDC’s numbers were right, that would mean that nearly half of the population in New York City had been infected. That does not seem very feasible, does it? Of course, they are not willing to provide any insight into their thought process. That’s why we will continue to take everything that they say going forward with a healthy grain of salt.
The more I think about it, the more this bothers me.
These numbers are so far outside of the scientific consensus that this strikes me as a devious and cynical effort to manipulate not only federal modeling but the broader scientific discourse.
— Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom) May 21, 2020
The true fatality rate also needs to reflect the dangers that are taking place in the nation’s nursing homes. More deaths are taking place in these locations than anywhere else. According to the current totals that are being shared with the general public, over 40 percent of all coronavirus deaths have occurred in nursing homes. It’s a stark disparity that needs to be addressed in more detail.