Light At The End Of The Tunnel? Social Distancing Seems To Be Working
If you are looking for a reason to remain somewhat optimistic in the face of the pandemic, we are here to provide you with a proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. On the other hand, there are some who are not going to be able to accept the following information at face value. Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx have changed their minds so many times, it is hard to know what to believe.
At first, they were predicting a massive death roll and chiding Americans for not taking the proper precautions. The White House model projections that were initially released were quite grim. Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx had initially claimed that up to 240,000 Americans would perish as a result of the coronavirus’ spread.
Now, the head of the CDC has been praising the social distancing efforts that have been made. What is the actual truth? It’s hard for Americans to know what is actually going on when no one is able to keep their stories straight. As it turns out, there is reason for the renewed level of optimism.
The initial projections were based on the idea that Americans would not be willing to listen to the recommendations that they were being given. In fact, these projections were based on the idea that only half of all Americans would follow the new rules that were put into place.
What we are seeing now is much different. Americans have been more willing to listen to the precautions than originally expected. This is obviously great news. Thanks to these actions, the projections that were made before could become obsolete. CNN also confirmed the information that has been provided by the White House about the early projections.
95 percent of the United States is under orders to stay at home. It is much easier for the citizens of this country to remain at home when all of the nonessential businesses have been shut down as well. Even those who are looking to flout the guidelines that have been put into place do not have any place to go.
On the other hand, there are those who are going to be pointing out the obvious: what happens if Americans decide to ignore the rules once social distancing guidelines are relaxed? It might be too early to crow about a decreased death toll. We do not know how many Americans will be ready to continue making the right decisions regarding social distancing until the time comes.
A week after unveiling a stunning projection for the number of people who would die from coronavirus in the US — 100,000 to 240,000 — White House officials have yet to fully explain how they arrived at those numbers…
A source close to the task force said it’s possible the eventual death toll will be “way under” the 100,000-to-240,000 figure.
A key factor driving the large estimate was a crucial assumption, discussed internally by task force officials, that only 50% of Americans would observe the government’s stringent social distancing guidelines, the source said. That calculation was not shared widely. In reality, a much larger number — 90% — is observing the government’s guidelines, US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams said in several interviews this week.
There are also doubts when it comes to the final numbers because no one is exactly sure how the White House is arriving at either projection that they have made. The IHME model is projecting at least 80,000 deaths over the course of the next four months. This projection is closer to the lower end of the White House model and this model influenced the first projection.
The IMHE model was also designed around certain assumptions as far as social distancing is concerned. The IMHE assumes that Americans will continue to maintain the same boundaries throughout the remainder of the month and for the entirety of May. Their projections suggest that they are expecting Americans to remain quarantined well into the summer, too.
That’s why these numbers are a best case scenario. Americans are not going to do what they have been told for months on end, that is for sure. Any projection that is based on the idea of Americans remaining indoors voluntarily until the end of July is probably a faulty one.
It is also fair to wonder why the models could miss so badly. It’s not like there is some form of data that wasn’t accounted for that would dramatically swing the numbers. People should be expected to stay home, of course. That does not mean that the numbers should be altered in a major way.
Predictions are tough to come by at the present moment. If we were being asked what we think will take place, it’s simple. The months ahead may end up turning out a bit better than we originally expected but people might become too complacent. Public health officials have already warned of a second wave once fall rolls around.
Hopefully, people will have learned from what has already taken place and be willing to head back into lockdown without much fuss. If things have not significantly improved by the time fall rolls around, there may be a collective sense of panic. All we can do is place our faith in the people who know more than us and hope for a strategy that truly works.