US Border Enforcement Is Increasing According To Mexican Officials
Just weeks ago, Trump was threatening tariffs on products coming from Mexico if the Mexican government didn’t step up to do something about the border. Trump wanted Mexico to focus on the Mexico/US border as much as the United States has been, especially with so many people migrating through Mexico from Central America in order to pursue asylum.
What a Mexican Official is Claiming
After the joint declaration was issued, one senior Mexican official has decided to portray the reduction of Central American migration northward as practically an overnight success. He asserts that border crossings have fallen by almost half – and that’s after only 10 days have passed since the declaration.
The official briefed a number of reporters in Washington. He claimed that the US Border Patrol only arrested 2600 people per day following the agreement on June 7. That is a considerable drop from the average of 4300 daily border arrests that were happening in May.
The Numbers Don’t Add Up
The problem is that the figures weren’t confirmed. A Mexican press aide also conceded that the official may have been referencing a drop from a single day.
A single day’s numbers aren’t a good example of a trend. It’s a single day. Right now, it’s too early to tell what kinds of numbers are being seen since it’s only been just over 10 days. After the 30-day mark, it will be easier to see an average.
This way, the May average can be compared to the June average, providing a real chance to see if Mexico, in fact, has made a significant difference with the number of Central Americans migrating to the Southern border of the U.S.
A Long-Term Reversal
While it would be great if the Mexican official’s reports were true, the numbers are not there yet to confirm that there’s any long-term reversal in place. However, the Mexican government has vowed to work on the issue. This includes deploying 6,000 troops from the National Guard to stem the flow of migrants through Mexico.
There’s also the expansion of the “Remain in Mexico” program that forces some non-Mexican asylum seekers to reside in Mexico while their US asylum case is resolved.
Additionally, Mexico and the United States have struck a side deal to evaluate how successful the measures have been after 45 days. If the United States continues to be unconvinced of the efficacy, there’s the possibility of a broader asylum deal regionally or a “safe third country” pact where migrants would be required to seek asylum in Mexico first – though Mexican officials have already said that they are not fond of that pact because they don’t want to have to take all of the asylum seekers.
There are no metrics in place, either. It is simply going to be about assessing whether things have improved or not. Since neither side established metrics, it’s hard to determine when a reversal has actually taken place and if it’s capable of being a long-term solution.
What’s going to happen with immigration?
There’s no way of knowing what’s going to happen with the southern border of the United States based on what Mexico is doing at this current time. 45 days from when the pact was signed will make it easier to establish whether the measures have been sufficient because there will be more data to go on.
At this time, the Mexican official had no business identifying that things have gotten better. Perhaps he wanted a moment in the spotlight. Perhaps he is hopeful that the measures taken will be enough to see a long-term solution. However, it’s not enough to get excited about right now.
Another aspect that needs to be taken into consideration is what’s happening in the Central American countries where people are leaving. Should their governments become any more hostile or gangs become increasingly more violent, it can lead to a mass exodus.
If this were to happen, it would only make sense for the migrants to travel north. With tens of thousands of people passing through Mexico and approaching the border already every month, there’s no saying what would happen if those numbers double or triple.
One thing to know is that the 6,000 troops that Mexico has allotted for the migration movement will be insufficient.
Time will tell. The border is a continuous issue with no real resolve because it’s impossible to stop the migration with so many people seeking asylum from their home country. Central American living conditions need to improve and Mexico needs to offer asylum before arrests at the border can be reduced.