Most retirees assume their pension is safe — but new data shows many plans are more fragile than anyone realized.

Market swings, longer lifespans, and rising inflation are putting enormous pressure on pension systems nationwide.

And your future income may depend on one simple number.

Why Pension Stability Is Under Threat in 2025

A new analysis from the International Monetary Fund reveals a troubling trend: only 32% of U.S. pension managers evaluate both sides of the equation — assets and liabilities — at the same time. That means most pensions are valuing investments without fully measuring what they owe retirees long-term.

In short, many plans are flying blind.

That’s dangerous in a year marked by high market volatility, shrinking bond values, and growing benefit obligations. When retirees live longer, it puts extra strain on the system, and when inflation rises, monthly checks lose purchasing power even if the pension doesn’t cut payouts.

“Pension plans cannot survive long-term if they ignore liability risks,” one IMF researcher warned. “The gap between what they earn and what they owe is becoming harder to manage.”

And that gap matters more for retirees than almost anything else.

How to Check Whether Your Pension Is Truly Safe

The most important number retirees should ask for is the funded status — the percentage showing how much money the pension has compared to what it owes.

A healthy plan is at 100% funded. Anything above 90% is generally considered solid. Below 90%? That’s a red flag.

Underfunding doesn’t mean failure tomorrow, but it signals stress that can lead to reduced cost-of-living adjustments, benefit freezes, or — in the worst cases — insolvency.

That’s why retirees must also verify whether their benefits are backed by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). If your company pension fails, PBGC provides a safety net — but only up to certain limits. Knowing whether you’re protected can prevent unwelcome surprises later.

For retirees who want even more certainty, many experts now suggest considering pension buyouts or rolling lump-sum pension offers into personal annuities that provide guaranteed lifetime income. These moves lock in the value of your benefit while removing company-specific risk from the equation.

And timing matters. Companies tend to offer pension buyouts when interest rates are favorable to them — which may or may not be favorable to retirees. Consulting a financial planner before making a decision is essential.

The bottom line: do not assume your pension is secure simply because the checks arrive on time. Pensions can weaken quietly for years before cuts or freezes appear.

As one planner put it, “You spent your life earning that benefit — now is the time to make sure it survives your retirement.”

With pensions under mounting pressure in 2025, every retiree should run a quick health check. Ask questions. Verify protections. And consider guaranteeing part of your income through vehicles that don’t depend on your employer’s financial stability.

Your pension is a cornerstone of your retirement — but only if you safeguard it.