With midterm elections just 100 days away, Democrats have settled on their closing argument: the economy is broken, tariffs are to blame, and Republicans have made your life more expensive. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been running ads in dozens of competitive districts showing gas prices climbing with the tagline "D.C. Republicans Did That." Their strategy memo puts it plainly: after running on lowering costs in 2024, "House Republicans' support of Trump's tariffs has turned their central 2024 promise into their biggest 2026 liability."
The data has a different story to tell.
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing barometer hit 55.6 in July — the highest reading since May 2022. Anything above 50 means expansion. American manufacturing has been in expansion territory for seven consecutive months. ISM tracks 16 industrial categories; 15 of them are growing. New orders have been rising for seven straight months. Manufacturing employment hit expansion territory for the first time since September 2023. Production is running at levels not seen since late 2021.
One machinery manufacturer told ISM surveyors exactly what's behind the surge: "Now that it seems the buildout of AI infrastructure globally is nearing real activation, products going into data centers are at full procurement and manufacturing ramp-up. Demand for our semiconductor end products and connectivity — power, networking and photonics — is booming."
That's someone describing what's actually happening to their order book.
Manufacturing is part of a broader picture Democrats would prefer voters not see before November. Private payroll growth in the first quarter of 2026 ran more than two and a half times the monthly average for all of 2025. The S&P 500 hit all-time highs this year, finishing more than 25% above where it stood twelve months ago. Unemployment sits at 4.1% — historically tight. And for workers worried about costs: average hourly earnings are up 3.5% year-over-year, outpacing inflation.
The policies driving these numbers aren't complicated. Trump's tariffs made foreign dumping less profitable, restoring the basic math that makes building things in America worthwhile. Capital expense deductions in the tax code made domestic investment cheaper. Deregulation reduced the cost burden that was pricing American manufacturers out of their own market. The result is 15 of 16 industrial sectors expanding simultaneously — the kind of broad-based growth that happens when policy and market conditions align, not when they work against each other.
Democrats are betting that economic anxiety outweighs economic reality at the ballot box. It's not an unreasonable bet — anxiety is real, and the DCCC is skilled at amplifying it. Their ads aren't wrong that prices are higher than they were. But wages are higher too, and by more. That gap between the Democratic message and the economic data is going to get harder to hold as the numbers keep coming in.
The DCCC calls Trump's tariffs Republicans' "biggest 2026 liability." The ISM's July report shows 15 of 16 American manufacturing sectors in expansion. Seven straight months of new order growth. Factory employment up for the first time in nearly three years. Private payroll growth running at two and a half times last year's pace.
Democrats have 100 days to convince voters the economy is failing. The economy has 100 days to keep proving otherwise.