The Brookings Institution — the D.C. think tank that has served as the intellectual engine of Democratic policy for decades — just published a paper finding that Biden-era mass migration reduced average American wages by as much as 1.5% and caused rents to rise between 1.4 and 1.6%.

That's not Breitbart's number. That's Brookings'.

The paper examined the economic effects of the migration wave that flowed through the country from early 2021 to early 2024. The findings read like a vindication memo for every Trump rally speech about wages and housing costs. Brookings found that "the influx may have reduced average wages of all workers by as much as 1.5%, likely in part because immigrants took lower-wage jobs."

The report did attempt a silver lining, noting that "U.S. natives' wages rose 0.9% overall and native-born employment was roughly unchanged." But follow the math on housing. Brookings found that "housing demand generated by the new immigrants caused rents to rise by 1.4 to 1.6%." Their own caveat — that "native renters' wages rose by more, increasing at least 1.6% net of the rent increase" — concedes that the rent hike happened. The debate is over whether wages rose fast enough to cover the damage.

Brookings wasn't the only institution to reach this conclusion. A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, published in June 2026, found that a 1% increase in unauthorized immigrant worker flows raised local house prices by 2.2% and local rents by 1.4%. The Dallas Fed went further: unauthorized immigration "can explain about 30% of the total growth in house prices and 20% of total growth in rents over the boom period for the average local market."

Thirty percent of the housing price explosion. One in five dollars of rent increases. From one policy failure.

A Housing and Urban Development investigation published last year reached similar conclusions. Three separate institutions — one left-leaning, one nonpartisan federal bank, one government agency — all arriving at the same place conservatives have been standing since 2021.

The Brookings framing is instructive. They didn't publish this as an indictment. They published it as economic analysis, hedged with enough caveats to maintain their institutional positioning. Wages went down, but native wages went up slightly. Rents went up, but native wages went up slightly more. The conclusion they want you to draw is that it all washed out.

But nobody running for office on the Democratic side in 2024 stood at a podium and said, "We're going to reduce average wages by 1.5% and raise your rent by 1.6%, but don't worry — your wages might rise just enough to break even." They said it wouldn't happen at all. They called the people who said it would happen xenophobes.

The Dallas Fed's finding sits there like an anchor. Thirty percent of house price growth in the average local market, driven by unauthorized immigration. For every young couple priced out of a starter home between 2021 and 2024, nearly a third of the gap between them and a front door traces back to a border that wasn't enforced.

Brookings published the numbers. The Dallas Fed confirmed them. HUD investigated and found the same pattern. Average wages down 1.5%. Rents up 1.6%. House prices up 2.2% per percentage point of increased unauthorized flows.