Democratic Voters Ignore Biden’s Town Halls
A new poll from Emerson College looks bad for President Trump but a closer look reveals that the Democrats are the ones who are in trouble. We all remember the polls that claimed Hillary Clinton was going to win the last presidency, don’t we? From the looks of it, the latest polls are simply more of the same.
As for Trump’s approval rating, it seems to have fallen because he is over the initial COVID-19 grace period. He received a much needed bump because of his response to the pandemic but the voters have cooled on him. These trends are a bit disconcerting for anyone who was looking for a Trump cakewalk back to the White House.
An incumbent president should not be experiencing this much of a drop in their approval rating when the election is only six months away. On the other hand, the Emerson results are not exactly a boon for the Democratic party. Biden should be expanding his lead at the moment but he is unable to capitalize on the issues that President Trump is experiencing.
Despite Trump’s drop in approval, former Vice President Joe Biden maintains only a 6 point lead in the Presidential ballot test, 48% to 42%. This is the same numerical difference as last month’s poll, where Biden led Trump 53% to 47%. Ten-percent (10%) of voters said they were undecided, but when asked to choose a candidate they were leaning towards, undecided voters slightly broke in favor of Biden, 56% to 44%, giving Biden an additional 1 point advantage.
Biden’s lead is minuscule at the moment. A 6 point lead is fairly small when you stop to consider the level of animosity that currently exists for President Trump. The Democrats should be rallying around their nominee but they have yet to do so. Sure, he’s received the requisite endorsements from Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton but those are not going to move the needle.
They were expected, to say the least. So what’s the explanation here? Why is Biden failing to expand his lead over Trump? The reason is simpler than you may think. Trump’s numbers may be on the decline but there is still far more enthusiasm about his bid for re-election than most would expect.
Nearly half of Joe Biden voters, 45%, said they were very or extremely excited to support Biden in the general election, compared to 64% of Trump voters that said they were very or extremely excited to support Trump in November. Nearly a quarter of Biden’s supporters, 26%, said they were not that excited, compared to 15% of Trump voters. Furthermore, 65% of those who voted for Senator Bernie Sanders in the primary season said they were not that excited for Biden.
Meanwhile, the Democrats and their voters seem to be standing with Biden out of some misguided sense of obligation. 45 percent of Biden’s prospective voters claim to be enthusiastic about the prospect of heading to the polls on his behalf come November. As for Trump, 64 percent of his voters have said that they are excited to vote for him.
Bernie Sanders also figures into these numbers in a very interesting way. 65 percent of those who decided to vote for Sanders during the primaries said that they are not enthusiastic about voting for Biden. This is not surprising. Sanders’ values differ greatly from Biden’s and Biden is already being accused of trying to usurp his chosen policies to win over his voters.
The response may have been different if the poll had been taken after Sanders offered his endorsement of Biden. If they are still unexcited about voting for Joe Biden after Bernie has given them the all clear, this does not bode well for his chances. Polls may matter but voter turnout is way more important overall.
What good is “winning” the polls before November if your would be voters are not even willing to leave the house on your behalf? Voters who are not enthused about a candidate are going to struggle to head to the polls under normal circumstances. Things are only going to get worse when there is a second wave of the COVID-19 virus to contend with.
People are not going to be clamoring to vote for Biden if they have to risk their lives to do it. This is not a concern that Trump is going to be forced to deal with. His voters cannot wait to cast their ballots and he is not going to be panicking about the early numbers. After watching everyone hand the 2016 election to Hillary Clinton before it had even taken place, it’s not like he’s going to put much stock in these polls.
An election that is taking place during a pandemic is going to hinge on voter enthusiasm far more than usual. Once Biden’s voters have had a chance to hear about his sexual assault allegations for a few months, their willingness to head to the polls is sure to wane. Why would anyone risk their health and safety to vote for a candidate that they are on the fence about?
It’s not a rhetorical question, either. This is a question that each prospective Biden voter is going to ask of themselves before fall rolls around. The Democrats also have yet to officially nominate him. At the moment, he is only the presumptive nominee. Perhaps the Democratic party will see fit to stage an intervention before the election. There could be another candidate waiting in the wings…..